Players to Fade/Back on Grass

Players to Fade

Casper Ruud

This is the most obvious player to fade on the men’s side. In fact, it’s so obvious that there’s very little, if any, value to be had in fading him on grass. He absolutely despises the surface and has made it clear that for him grass is for golfing and not tennis. Last year he skipped all of the lead-in tournaments and jumped right into Wimbledon, where he beat Alex Bolt and then lost to Fognini in 4 sets.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

In years past his fade value was pretty high on grass. But now that he’s ranked #20 in the world and already struggling coming into grass season, we might not be able to squeeze much value out of him. Then again, he’s been known to lose to some mediocre players even on his favorite surfaces, so anything is possible. He has reached the round of 16 twice at Wimbledon, where he lost to Eubanks and Isner. He also lost to Kyrgios in the round of 32, so he clearly struggles with big servers, as his return game is below average for a “top” player.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

You can almost blindly take any player who plays above their ranking on clay and look to fade them on grass. I say “almost” because a guy like Alcaraz is very proficient on both surfaces. Fokina is definitely not. He’s 10-13 in his career on grass with 3 of those 13 losses coming in qualifying. At Wimbledon he has lost to Vesely, Kudla, Polansky, and Watanuki (before he became good on grass).

Iga Swiatek

The most obvious choice on the women’s side. Lack of serve hurts her on grass compared to the other top players. But aside from that, it’s not so much that her game drops off dramatically. It’s more so that the top players hit big and they can hit through her on faster surfaces. On clay she can get to everything with her impeccable movement. Despite only making it past the round of 16 once at Wimbledon, she still seems to be among the favorites to win the title every year. It’s almost comical, but it’s great news for us.

Qinwen Zheng

Zheng has a 3-8 career record on grass. She has faced some pretty solid opponents, but anyone in the top 5 shouldn’t have such a terrible record on any one surface. Her long backswing makes it difficult for her to handle pace on grass, and it doesn’t seem like something that can be adjusted in the short-term to have any type of success.

Players to Back

Hubert Hurkacz

Hurkacz has consistently proven himself on grass over the past few years, making at least a semi-final every year since 2021 which includes two finals and one title. He has a winning record against top 10 opponents on grass. Obviously his serve is a massive weapon, but he also has variety and is able to mix up his shots. Since returning from injury he has played very well making a final in Geneva, look for him to be aggressive coming into a surface he likes.

Alex De Minaur

Grass is arguably De Minaur’s best surface as it suits his game extremely well with his flat hitting, speed, and quick footwork. He has two titles and a finals loss to Alcaraz at Queen’s club and was set to face Djokovic in the QF at Wimbledon last year before an injury forced him to withdraw. With his ability to chase down shots and a good slice backhand out of the corner, he won’t be giving opponents any easy points. You can count on him to win the matches he’s supposed to win and he should also pose a threat to any of the top players on grass.

Jelena Ostapenko

It’s no mystery why Ostapenko’s game works well on grass. She isn’t an elite mover, but she hits one of the hardest balls on tour and can put you away on any shot. She is 53-24 all time on grass including two titles and one final loss in the past 4 years. Her powerful ground strokes are enough to overpower even the best defenders on tour and if she is on her game she can beat anyone. Look to back her as a dog vs some of the top players who may not be as well equipped on grass.